Northeast under most significant October wildfire threat in years

Much of the Northeast is facing its most significant October wildfire threat in years as a cold front pushing off the coast is expected to leave dry and breezy conditions in its wake this weekend amid a near record-dry stretch, prompting one state to declare an emergency. 

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has highlighted much of the I-95 corridor from Washington, D.C. to Boston at an increased risk of wildfires. In addition, Fire Weather Warnings now cover 35 million people across all of Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, the New York City metro area and Long Island through Saturday evening. 

In many communities, wind gusts are expected to reach 25-35 mph, and with the combination of dry vegetation and fallen leaves, fires could grow rapidly out of control.

Large areas of the Northeast haven’t seen significant rainfall in about a month, leading October to be one of the driest periods on record. Philadelphia is set to break its 150-year-old record for the longest dry stretch of 29 days on Monday, and this October could be the city's first to go without measurable rain.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, 64% of the region is experiencing unusually dry conditions with 30% officially seeing drought conditions.

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More than a dozen wildfires popped up during the workweek in Connecticut, forcing the state’s governor to declare a state of emergency.

"Due to the critical fire weather conditions Connecticut is continuing to experience, I am declaring a state of emergency," Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont stated. "This will help provide state and local emergency management officials with the necessary tools to monitor and limit the threat of fires statewide."

In addition, Connecticut has called a statewide burn ban, effective Saturday. 

"Conditions were beautiful for outdoor activities today, not so great for fire conditions," Berlin, Connecticut Fire Chief John Massirio said during a Saturday morning news conference. "There is no burning in state parks, wildlife management areas, or any property owned by the state. No campfires, grilling, open flame or heat sources."

The Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection said the combination of dry conditions and fallen leaves has created a unique fire situation.

The fire burning near Berlin, Connecticut claimed a life when a retired firefighter from Hartford was killed when his utility task vehicle rolled over while on steep, rocky terrain. Three other firefighters were injured.

All eyes on the humidity

A saving-grace for fires could be the relatively humidity values, which are expected to generally stay above 30% through the weekend.

The air’s moisture can make fuels less combustible and fires less intense.

In the western U.S., relative humidity values during high-fire events are usually significantly below 20%, which causes erratic wildfire activity.

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Another round of active fire weather is expected to take place next week as temperatures reach the 70s and 80s in the days and hours before Halloween.

On Thursday, cities such as Boston and New York are expecting daytime highs around 75 degrees, with temperatures falling to near 70 degrees after sunset, providing a stark contrast to the usual chilly evenings.

A cold front is expected to trek through the region at the end of the workweek, bringing the best chance of precipitation in several weeks, but rainfall amounts are anticipated to remain on the light side.

Significant drought relief is not in the making before the start of the next month, meaning the threats of fire activity will likely continue through the extended forecast period.

LINK: Get updates on wildfires and more at foxweather.com.