Trump's tariffs could hit these states the hardest, analysis shows

LOS ANGELES - President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China could have a major economic impact across the U.S., particularly in states that rely heavily on trade with these countries. 

A new analysis from LendingTree examines which states are most vulnerable to the effects of these tariffs—both from import restrictions and possible retaliatory measures.

While the full economic consequences are still uncertain, the LendingTree report found that eight states source at least two-thirds of their imports from these three countries. At the same time, four states send over 65% of their exports to them, making their economies particularly exposed to trade policy changes.

A separate survey included in the analysis found that nearly 3 in 4 Americans believe tariffs will lead to higher prices, and 44% expect them to hurt their personal finances.

Which states are most dependent on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China?

By the numbers:

According to the LendingTree analysis, these states have the highest percentage of imports coming from Canada, Mexico, and China:

• Montana – 94.3%
• New Mexico – 76.9%
• Vermont – 75.0%
• Michigan – 69.7%
• Maine – 69.4%
• North Dakota – 63.5%
• Oklahoma – 57.2%
• Wyoming – 54.5%

Montana tops the list, with over 91% of its imports coming from Canada alone. New Mexico and Vermont follow closely behind, relying on trade with Mexico and Canada for a large share of their imports.

A container ship passes under the San Francisco – Oakland Bay Bridge on its way to the Port of Oakland on February 03, 2025 in San Francisco, California.  (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Which states send the most exports to Canada, Mexico, and China?

The other side:

Retaliatory tariffs could also have a significant impact on states that send most of their exports to these three countries. According to the report, these states are the most vulnerable:

• North Dakota – 88.2% of exports
• New Mexico – 78.9%
• South Dakota – 71.8%
• Michigan – 65.7%

North Dakota leads the list, exporting over 80% of its goods to Canada, Mexico, and China. If those countries impose tariffs in response, it could have serious economic consequences for key industries in these states.

What Americans think about tariffs

What they're saying:

Public opinion on tariffs is divided, but a majority of Americans are concerned about rising prices.

• 74% believe tariffs will increase the cost of goods.
• 44% think tariffs will negatively impact their finances, while 28% expect a positive impact.
• 67% of Republicans say tariffs will lead to higher prices, compared to 85% of Democrats and 73% of independents.

Millennials and parents of young children are among the most optimistic about tariffs, while older Americans and women are more likely to see them as a financial burden.