How RFK Jr.'s exit could impact 2024 election results

On Friday, the independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he was suspending his 2024 campaign during a speech in Phoenix, Arizona, and subsequently, endorsing Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump.

"In my heart, I no longer believe that I have a realistic path to electoral victory," Kennedy said on August 23. "So I cannot in good conscious ask my staff and volunteers to keep working their long hours or ask my donors to keep giving when I cannot honestly tell them that I have a real path to the White House."

His suspension, which came just 74 days prior to Election Day, has led people to speculate how this may affect Harris or Trump’s chances to win the 2024 presidential election. 

RFK Jr. slips in polls

Over the last 10 months, Kennedy has slipped from 16.7% to under 5% in the RCP National Average, taking a particularly large hit in the weeks since Harris stepped in to replace Biden as the Democrats' nominee.

"Since the president has dropped out and obviously Vice President Harris has assumed the nomination, his numbers have just cratered," political analyst Richard Gordon told LiveNOW from FOX, adding, "I assume those numbers will go down significantly lower." 

But in a closely fought election, and especially in swing states where every vote really matters, experts say Kennedy voters could potentially swing victory either way for Trump or Harris in November's 2024 election.

Could RFK Jr’s suspension impact swing states?

David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, told FOX TV Stations that "it’s possible" that Kennedy’s suspension could impact election results, but the net impact would likely be a maximum of one percentage point – a point which could be important, particularly in swing states.

"It's kind of like splitting hairs, but it could matter in a battleground state where the difference is razor-thin," Paleologos told FOX Television Stations. "Had RFK suspended when he was polling in the high teens/low twenties it would have made a big difference." 

How RFK’s suspension could impact Trump’s chances

Despite Kennedy’s recent suspension, he went on to say Friday that he was not necessarily terminating his campaign but that he was "simply suspending it." 

Kennedy took steps to withdraw his candidacy in at least two states last week, Arizona and Pennsylvania, but election officials in the battlegrounds of Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin said it would be too late for him to take his name off the ballot even if he wanted to do so.

"My name will remain on the ballot in most states," Kennedy told the public.

"The meaning of RFK Jr. dropping out of the race is probably minimal, but if they do it right, if he does it right, it pulls himself off the ballot in states where he could help Trump, stays on the ballot in states that he could hurt Harris," Gordon said.

But many experts say many of RFK Jr.’s supporters were already aligned with Trump, potentially increasing votes for Trump that would have otherwise gone to Kennedy.

RELATED: RFK Jr. suspends 2024 campaign; will support Donald Trump

"The data suggests a very slight advantage to Trump," Paleologos continued.

David Washington, CEO at J & Washington Political Firm, agreed, adding, "It does give Trump a slight boost. However, I don’t see anything significant." 

[PULL QUOTE: "The data suggests a very slight advantage to Trump." — David Paleologos, political expert]

At Trump's event last week in Las Vegas, Alida Roberts, 49, told the Associated Press that Kennedy's endorsement of Trump spoke volumes about the current state of the Democratic Party.

"It says that he doesn’t trust what’s going on, that it’s not the party he grew up in," she said.

Roberts, who voted twice for Trump, said she was relieved and excited by the endorsement because she had been "teeter-tottering" between the two candidates.

There's also some evidence that Kennedy's suspension of the race would help Trump more than Harris. According to a July AP-NORC poll, Republicans were significantly more likely than Democrats to have a favorable view of Kennedy. And those with a positive impression of Kennedy were significantly more likely to also have a favorable view of Trump (52%) than Harris (37%).

How RFK’s suspension could impact Kamala Harris’ chances

But Kennedy’s endorsement also poses some risk for Trump, as Democrats seek to define the Republican ticket as "weird" – by which they mean outside the mainstream of American politics.

Kennedy was fueled in part by anti-establishment voters and vaccine skeptics who have followed his anti-vaccine work since the COVID-19 pandemic.

And a year ago, some would have thought it inconceivable that a member of arguably the most storied family in Democratic politics would work with Trump to keep a Democrat out of the White House. 

Experts say this could end up providing more material for such attacks against Trump. 

Despite this, the Kennedy and Trump campaigns have previously suggested publicly that they were open to teaming up, with the goal of limiting the election chances of Harris.

Since announcing her candidacy, polls revealed that Harris has performed better in those that feature third-party candidates than directly between only her and Trump. 

A Marquette Law School poll of registered Wisconsin voters this month found Trump leading 50%-49% in a head-to-head matchup but Harris leading Trump 45%-43%, with other candidates like Kennedy and Cornel West added to the mix.

In addition, a national poll from Suffolk/USAT in June showcased a breakdown of major demographics where Kennedy polled 12% or higher between Trump and President Joe Biden.

Kennedy polled 12% of Hispanics, 13% of young voters and 18% of independent women – all which could be favorable votes for Harris. Meanwhile, he also polled 15% for independent men and 16% of voters in trade and tech industries, which could be favorable to Trump, according to Paleologos.

Bottom line

Bottom line: Experts say Kennedy’s base is still relatively small and shrinking. But with the path to victory being so incredibly narrow at this moment, anything can make a difference.

"This election is going to be determined on the margins," Washington added.

Anything, anything can make a difference," Gordon explained. "My personal feeling, my gut on this is he [Kennedy] will be a non-factor. That’s my gut, but at this moment, if he was able to take 1% out of Michigan and 1% out of North Carolina, that could make the difference."