Veteran pollster Ann Selzer ending election polling after 'big miss' in Iowa survey
Iowa pollster to step away after pre-election whiff
Veteran pollster J. Ann Selzer announced she was done with election polling and moving on to "other ventures" after her pre-election poll in Iowa inaccurately showed Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of President-elect Donald Trump in the state he had easily won in 2016 and 2020.
Veteran pollster J. Ann Selzer is moving on to "other ventures" after her final election poll in Iowa inaccurately showed Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of President-elect Donald Trump.
In her announcement on Sunday as an op-ed for the Des Moines Register, Selzer wrote that she "knew a few years ago that the election polling part" of her career was coming to an end.
"Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities," Selzer wrote in the op-ed.
"Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite," she continued. "I am proud of the work I’ve done for the Register, for the Detroit Free Press, for the Indianapolis Star, for Bloomberg News and for other public and private organizations interested in elections. They were great clients and were happy with my work."
FILE - In this composite image, Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris (L) and Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump. (Photos by Scott Olson & Bill Pugliano/Getty Images).
Selzer’s Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll published on Nov. 2 found Harris leading Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%. This was a 7-point shift from Iowa polling in September, which found Trump had a 4-point advantage over Harris.
Trump ultimately won in the state by a 13-point margin, winning 56% of the vote to Harris’ 42.7%.
Selzer is known for past polls that accurately predicted Trump's 8-point lead in Iowa over Joe Biden in 2020 and his comfortable victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The pollster admitted in her recent op-ed that the results were indeed "shocking," but her "findings looked good" and Selzer’s history of accuracy over 30 years of polling may have "made the outlier position too comfortable."
The poll was conducted between Oct. 28 and Oct. 31 among 808 likely Iowa voters.
"Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I’m humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings," she continued.
After Trump’s winning performance in Iowa, Seltzer acknowledged on Nov. 7 that the poll was a "big miss" and said her team would be looking at data to try to understand what happened. Selzer confessed she had been bombarded with questions asking if she had "manipulated" the data to show Harris with a false lead.
She also suggested her polling may have actually galvanized voters to support Trump.